The Last Election

Some brief thoughts

The last election is coming up soon, and I need to write and finish this on time, so I will be quick about it.

I have written pessimistically in the past regarding hopes for future electoral victory, because if massive fraud is unleashed once, it can be unleashed again and again, until it becomes the new normal. In 2020, we saw no elite defection whatsoever that would allow an effort, legal or otherwise, against election fraud to gain steam. The two options are to launch a coup, and hope that either the security services side with you or merely sit out while your brownshirts run rampant, or to gain the support of dissident elites who have enough hands on the levers of institutions, institutions of perceived legitimacy, (perceived by the security services primarily) that a power struggle can be forced.

I have written on how option one could have been accomplished by Trump and his supporters, and I will not repeat myself here. If Trump had brownshirts who forced themselves into election centers after counting was paused, poll watchers ejected, and the windows papered over, 2020 could have gone down differently. But I see no indication that brownshirts have been organized for this purpose this cycle, so I will leave speculation on this course here. I was not optimistic about option 2, elite defection, in 2020. But many things have happened since 2020. In 2021, the US botched its planned withdrawal from Afghanistan, the botching of which I have explained in-depth before, in 2022, civil war in the Donbass erupted into full-scale war, with the US backing Ukraine against Russia, and in 2023, a Hamas raid against Isreal and that state’s botched reprisal threatened to destabilize the middle east, with the Houthis closing the Red Sea to US ships.

A great deal of the US elite is interested in foreign empire; indeed empire is the only means by which the collapse of the US financial system is deferred, but this motive is secondary to the hopes and dreams of the aging Fukuyama crowd of liberals and neocons, dreams of an international communism and the end of sovereign states. At the same time, the younger and more leftist part of the elite is driven by racial resentment, “degrowth”, “climate justice” and so on; their motive is simply the dismantling of civilization by any means necessary and the punishment of whites for their supposed historical sins. There is no grand unified conspiracy where one belief is a cover for the other; there are many conspiracies and many factions, one sometimes getting its way over the other. As Medvedev (iirc) put it, the US is not agreement-capable.

The idea that the US may defeat Russia cheaply via its Ukrainian proxy was met with universal acclaim and joy by all factions of the elite; by some because it meant the deaths of millions of whites and the punishment of the at least slightly anti-gay and anti-feminist Putin regime, and by others because it seemed that the defeat of the recalcitrant Russia was nigh and the Gay Empire could increase its power for Global Trotskyism after several minor losses and failed color revolutions. But as the war dragged on, it became clear to those with eyes to see it that not only was Russia showing the truth of the old adage bellum salus populi but that NATO’s supply to Ukraine was irreversibly depleting its own military stores. The same institutions of the left that allowed it to gain a communist-style control of private society had also degraded its ability to manufacture even in extreme need. This loss in capacity sits at the intersection of DEI hiring, HR, corporate regulations, quasi-state contractors, the exclusion of the talented and capable by feminized consensus-based corporate culture, and so on.

Now it is clear that Russia is going to win, slowly and painfully but decisively and completely, and the voices in the GAE calling for more escalation are only those voices committed to the extinction of whites and the dismantling of civilization; their plan alongside the Ukrainian regime’s plan is to trigger nuclear war. And yet the older international communist left, who have of course I will note ceded the moral high ground to the race-communist left, grew up under the terrible specter of nuclear war and moreover remember when the US was able to manufacture cutting edge weapons (few today even know that the crowning F-35 is built to spec in Turkey and merely assembled in the US). The inital delusion that US weapons would win the UKR a decisive victory over Russia was shared by all parties initially but scales have since fallen from eyes. The pace of materiel consumption in modern-day full scale war would reduce the US’ stocks to that of a third world country within a matter of two months, and that’s without the fact that 80% of gen Z men are unfit for military service, that the bones of new enlistees in basic tend to break when attempting to hike three miles with a pack on or climb a wall. I oversimplify greatly for the purpose of brevity but some among the ruling class have woken up to the fact that the US is a “bank with nuclear weapons masquerading as a country”.

Those among the elite who have woken up are still, of course, our enemies in the long run. Do not mistake me on that. Their plan for the future is an abominable monstrosity, an immense global favela. But they are no longer on board with 2024 leftism, and want to roll the clock back to 2010 leftism. The only viable option is Trump, who is a 1990 liberal, and 1990 liberalism is starting to look pretty good to some of these defectors I think. Elon Musk, who is not a member of the elite, who needs approval from environmental bureaucrats to launch a rocket, is very good at sensing which way the wind is blowing. He would not do anything without some assurance that the state will protect him. Otherwise no Mars. A man with a singular dream. His defection is a good sign that there is a “Thermidor” faction which wants to shut down the leftward march of the frothingly insane.

This is easier said than done. It is an extremely hard problem. The measures required are beyond the scope of 1990s, 1960s, or even 1860s liberalism. I will leave what Trump has to do for if he wins. But with Trump installed, Thermidor looking to moderate his icky nativism and populism while also restoring the economic conditions that allow for America to fight and win a war (the plan seems to be letting Musk pull a Milei on the government; Milei being a test run istalled by this faction), and finding that 1990s liberalism is insufficient, while the left gets very violent and very insistent on taking heads, the moderate and squishy Thermidor will end up in a position where it needs to hire the American equivalent of Azov to make sure the right heads roll, because there is literally nobody else willing and able to do the job, and then the Reichstag catches on fire…

Anyway. What are Trump’s chances of winning on Tuesday? I make very good predictions when I actually make them, but I will refrain from predicting when they hinge on the wills of men and information that I do not and cannot know. Obviously, if the votes of only American citizens who showed up in person to vote counted, Trump would win in a Reaganesque landslide. Every state that implements strict voter ID laws flips red and stays red for GOPe moderates, and Trump is far more popular than they. Even in a normal election, there is a lot of fraud, a disgusting and immense amount of fraud, and 2020 required extreme measures. In 2020, everybody important on the left acted like their victory was assured, no campaigning, because they knew for a certainty that it was assured. This time, not so much. Trying to shoot Trump at least twice was an admission of extreme weakness. The mere defection of some of the elite may have spooked the remaining left out of trying 2020-style fraud, or some measure was taken behind the scenes to dismantle the operation, or the left has reason to believe that the elite defectors are likely to find judges sympathetic to them.

But of course I cannot know these things. All I know is that the left seems very afraid in a way they did not in 2020. The smug certitude of 2020 leftists was what made me pessimistic, and that is gone. The extreme left may still try last-ditch lawfare efforts to invalidate the election and it may not be officially decided until well into next year. I am expecting, slightly, a “November surprise”, some great false flag or act of chaos leading up to election day that will attempt to either invalidate the results or poison Trump’s mandate. But I do know that there will not be a next time. Musk says that this is the last election because Kamala will grant 30 million illegals voting rights. While she will do this, this is the last election because in 2028, if Kamala wins, nobody who is actually concerned about why the US has only two plants that can make artillery shells, and why these plants cannot ramp up production even when given a big heaping stack of cash, and why making artillery shells is important, will be anywhere near institutional levers of power, and thus there will be nobody willing and able to contest actual fraud. Trump may sail in smoothly; the Left’s achilles tendons may have been quietly cut behind the scenes. There may be chaos, contested results, violence in the streets. But it does not seem much like an immense fraud will go unchallenged, or unchallenged but for a burgher riot or two, with Kamala quietly installed and Trump slinking into the shadows. I consider that least likely.